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The Austin office market experienced significant fluctuations in the first quarter of 2024. Despite the ongoing positive net absorption, the overall vacancy rate has risen, primarily driven by new office space deliveries outstripping the absorption rates. This trend has resulted in a decrease in asking rates across the board, with a noticeable performance gap between Class A and Class B properties.

Market Dynamics

At the close of Q1 2024, Austin’s office market vacancy rate stood at 19%, a significant increase of 250 basis points from the previous year. The city saw a total of 150,144 sq. ft. of positive net absorption in Class A properties, contrasting with a negative absorption of 111,183 sq. ft. in Class B properties. This disparity underscores the stronger demand for high-quality office spaces.

Economic Indicators and Employment Trends

Austin’s economy shows a mixed landscape. The unemployment rate slightly increased to 3.5%, still below both the state and national averages. February witnessed a robust 9.5% increase in employment, led by gains in professional and business services, government, and leisure and hospitality. However, trade, transportation, utilities, and manufacturing sectors saw declines.

Detailed Market Analysis

  • Net Absorption: The net absorption for the quarter was relatively flat at 38,961 sq. ft., marking a significant decrease from the previous quarter's 439,401 sq. ft.
  • Notable Move-Ins: Key transactions included Apple occupying 81,360 sq. ft. at Las Cimas I, and Dun & Bradstreet taking 36,248 sq. ft. at Domain Gateway.

Submarket Performance

The North/Domain and Central Austin submarkets led in new deliveries, with significant projects like Uptown ATX and 7001 Burnet adding substantial square footage to the market. Despite high construction volumes, only 15% of the new office space was pre-leased, indicating potential overbuilding.

Investment and Sales

Investment sales totaled $272 million over the past 12 months. Noteworthy transactions included the City of Austin's purchase of 2400 Grove and the Teacher’s Retirement System of Texas's acquisition of the Bravo building. The average sales price was $336 per sq. ft. with an average capitalization rate of 7.1%.

Leasing Activity

Leasing activity has shown a decline both quarterly and year-over-year, with total leasing volume at 1.1 million sq. ft. This reduction in leasing velocity reflects broader market uncertainties and a shift in tenant preferences.

Rental Rates and Projections

Full-service average rents in Austin have decreased to $39.74 per sq. ft., with Class A space commanding $45.31 per sq. ft., and Class B space at $31.88 per sq. ft. The highest rents were recorded in the CBD, while the Northeast submarket had the lowest. Continued downward pressure on rents is anticipated through the remainder of the year, with an expected decline of around 3%.

Conclusion

As we move through 2024, Austin’s office market is adjusting to a new equilibrium affected by high supply levels and shifting demand dynamics. While the market remains robust in certain submarkets and property classes, stakeholders should remain vigilant and adaptive to the changing economic indicators and market conditions. For a detailed perspective or specific inquiries, the full quarterly market report is available for download from Partners Real Estate's website. Text me with any questions in regards to how this shift might effect your property value.

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